A Lasting Peace

I've joined with most others in hoping that the death of Arafat and the election of Abbas signals an end to the intifada and a revival of the peace process.

Dennis Ross manages expectations and reminds us to take it one step at a time:

I don't share skepticism about whether this is a moment to transform the situation. If you're asking if this is the moment peace will be made, the answer is no. The answer is not making peace right now, but ending the war you've had for the last four years. In the year 2000, we were trying to resolve the situation by settling core issues, meaning Jerusalem, refugees and borders. Neither side can deal with those issues right now because you've got the legacy of the last four years. At this point, the issue is: Can you end the war and begin a peacemaking process? And there, I'm hopeful

Comments

[Schrock]

Sadly, the thing that seems to be ending the intafada is the wall. Whereas Arafat would have been stubbornly defiant, Abbas appears to understand its bomber-stopping, border-establishing implications. Now is the time to strike a deal with Sharon. The longer he waits, the more obvious it will become (to Israelis and Palestinians alike) that terrorism is no longer a strategic lever in the conflict. Then what will the Palestinians have? As long as Israel keeps building the wall, progress will continue. Once it finishes, however, Israel will no longer have an incentive to make consessions to the Palestinians. (Of course, all of this assumes that the wall will continue to be an effective barrier against suicide bombers, which to date it has been.)

[Jason Turner]

Good point, John. I've seen several articles (can't remember where now) on the effect the wall has had on places where it is already standing. In those locations there has been a significant decrease in suicide bombers, if only because there are fewer easily accessible entry points.

But there's also some evidence that the intifada - as a political exercise - has worn itself out, that the massive will to sustain it has been lessened by both Israeli persistence and worldwide disapproval. At some point, the Palestinians must simply tire of achieving so little through their committment to blowing themselves up.

It's almost as if the Palestinians are slowly beginning to realize that Israel, for better or worse, is their neighbor, and that despite the explicit wishes of Arafat, there is zero chance that they will be able to drive the Israelis into the sea. Faced with that gradual realization, the Palestinians have reluctantly returned to the table to engage next steps.

Of course, none of it would have been possible with Master Terrorist Arafat still at the helm. His death has offered the first real chance for peace in decades. How timely. How hopeful.