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MK has decided to submit, which is pretty Moscow after 10 years 5-10 years through Moscow traffic is destined for collapse, a street gang violence and endless ethnic conflict. This is not a dream of a madman and excerpts from fiction novel, a scientist predicted that because of years of research made famous academician Igor Bestuzhev Lada. There are, however, and much more optimistic version. For example, the change of the Russian capital into a city-museum with a minimum of crime and high-speed public transport. Which way do go about Moscow? What awaits its residents and visitors? MK, together with the experts decided to present options for the development sobytiy.PROGNOZ Pessimistic Capital expects a large-scale danger when the Russian city rather continue to evolve without reason as it is now, after several years of waiting for large-scale crisis. So says renowned scholar, leader of the International Academy of Future Studies, author of several works according to the social structure of the population of Moscow, Academician Igor Bestuzhev Lada. - Az broker school of technology foresight, which is not predicted to be, and identify problems, weigh the consequences and seeks to address - said, MK Bestuzhev Lada. - Likewise, I freely declare: Moscow mature serious problems. To begin with real estate. Demand for housing in Moscow is always pretty to grow, even to give every Muscovite according apartment. First, housing is the best value for money. Secondly, people always want more. Third, Moscow attracts people with money, fourthly, there is a construction complex, which is to build and fairly. Moscow is now growing up, and causality in breadth it difficult to develop. This implies that so troubles. until just has bad habit to bring up the street. There, he brazenly requires 48 square meters: 12 square meters. m - car parking close to home, another 12 meters - close to work, even 12 meters - about entertainment, even 12 meters - to find for the road itself. Cars flooded the entire street. - Wait a Moscow traffic jams? - Our experts have calculated that a collapse would happen if the number of cars will exceed 4.5 million. Now registered 3,3 million cars, and each year added an average of 300,000. Thus, up to an hour X remains no more than four years. Next problem - the demographic. Muscovites were of one percent. Those who now calls himself Muscovites, mostly came from the villages. single year die if 125,000 Muscovites are born - 75,000, the difference - about 50 thousand. Similarly, these 50 000 I is renewable every way possible. single year in Moscow enter tens of thousands of foreign workers legally and hundreds of thousands - of illegal. We will soon move to performance in Paris, Munich, London, where up to half the population - people from Asia and Africa. Once these cities are located in stable countries. Our country - is very unstable. Our people can provoke for slaughter. - Only because the system limit established during the Soviet era. It turns out, the situation has been programmed? - During the 1980 Moscow became the city-parasite. the fourth was a single or official, or scientist, or worked in a mailbox, or service staff. Representatives of the latter two categories did not want the children went their way, and pushing them into higher education, science and management personnel. The capital felt a severe shortage of workers - like 300,000 seats per year. The Soviet government announced a limit - 100,000 per year. during the time, officials believed that Moscow will withstand such an influx. only failure occurred. There is a massive gathering in Moscow of people with different culture, who will surely face in our destabilized the city. And most only possible option, if they do not touch the Russian, but will fight among themselves, why, incidentally, not easier. We go for this. suddenly, and, indeed, to extinction, if the Russian-language Moscow to replace the thing else. Even now there are schools that teach only the Caucasian and Asian children. - You often say that the family institution has virtually disappeared. But it might be worth waiting for its revival? - You called another not a good trend, associated with a decrease in the indigenous population - the loss of the needs of the family according to his arrival in the city. Easier to make a career separately than to mess with her husband and children. All this, taken together, put in the position of Moscow city impasse, which is prepared meal for over 10 years. Likewise, because the choice between the best and worst we have to do in the near future. FORECAST Idealist The capital rather a conglomeration of several cities in comfortable but now - for the health. Moscow may stop city-tale, dream-city. if only to fulfill certain conditions. Heres a thesis metropolitan urban revolution, with a bright future in perspective. First, removed almost all the industrial zone. Plants should display in the small towns that are dying through unemployment. for Moscow, which are really high-tech production. Likewise, any extra acres not used before storage. Secondly, stolitshotya zbavlyaetsya a major industrial markets. But thirdly, in a perfect Moscow unsuitable officials - they are much clutter the streets and have a habit of overlapping motion. They need to create optimal conditions for work. Special young friendly town, 2 for 2 kilometers, with townhouses, administrative, embassies, guests, and financial district. Ideally, for some of Moscow should become ill three cities - for federal, Moscow and regional officials. Likewise, if the capital will automatically ease traffic: stop trucks going to markets, workers, employees and officials. Obsolete, I destroyed the world. That but you can offer in return? The first hypostasis of the new Moscow: the city-university. The more pretty students, youth in Moscow - the better. Of course, teachers and employees of universities are identical remain in the city. Well, the students will live in the present high-rise buildings, converted into dormitories. The second hypostasis of the new Moscow: museum city. According to academician Bestuzhev-Lada, a Russian city is not inferior to Rome, Madrid, Paris and London. and tourist infrastructure is hideously arranged. Hence, it is necessary to transform the administrative buildings in the faculties of universities and museums. Benefit them is being filled - now 80% of the museum exhibits are in store. Everything is fine, but much to spend the rest of the population? In the idealists and it has the answer. Moskvhotya area once naturally merge into a big metropolis. There is dominated by three types of buildings. best - luxury townhouses according to 30 apartments. for young families who were promised 250 thousand rubles for a second child. Suppose that the population program. another kind of development consent in the cities, much moved plants. Workers are lured back to those long-term loans but townhouses. But the third - a change of departmental buildings in academic buildings and apartment buildings - in the sunny resort for retirees. It turns out this charming picture: the tourist and student town in the center. Will live in it, and numerous representatives of the service sector, and transporters - metro and trams in fact consistent with the capital to go do not stop. Dhoti via private transport no one will refuse - traffic jams, then disappear. Along the perimeter of Moscows green belt will be living retirees and young families. but in the region, in the cozy towns - workers, government officials and civil servants. Throughout the whole looks good, does not really? REALISTIC OUTLOOK James rather less, and officials will leave the Kremlin comparing the predictions of horror and dreaming, I want to hear is still more or less informed opinion about the prospects of the capital. Better just to tell them those working on the development strategy of Moscow - MPs, officials and architects. Moscow before the Russians enough to call - you can say for sure. According to surveys, 60% of the countrys citizens want to live and work in the capital. That may interfere with the potential of Muscovites? and prices for real estate. - Dear Moscow life with high salaries but also a huge price for housing is protected through the overflow of the city - says the mediator Moscow City Duma, the head of the Commission according to Long-Term Development and Planning Mikhail Moskvin-Tarkhanov . For the conditions of primary high cost of housing the majority of Realtors re-classified to sell rooms. Already apartment actively selling stakes in conformity. So who are waiting for the elite Moscow communal apartment. Will grow and market rental housing. Com strong help with the acquisition of apartments - no reason is a waiting list. They are going to offer 70% of the average square meter of housing in Moscow in the form of subsidies. Now the average merit meters estimated in 3800 dollars - prices in remote areas such as South Butova. but the waiting list will give 2,500 per meter. A family with three people gets about 130 thousand dollars. What can be done? Possible, supplements buy an apartment in Butovo. however, it is possible - in Solnechnogorsk deny payments. So to be able to create the outflow of people in the region. Suburbs really turn into a sleeping place in Moscow. This is noted and appreciated the metropolitan middle class. Potential home buyers in the mass segment went to Moscow for at least half of the year. Price dispersion, even in the Moscow suburbs (5-20 km across the Ring Road) is 30% about the average price in 2000-2500 dollars per square meter. am likewise about 70% of this population is not involved in the real estate market. The scale of construction in the area will increase. It is hoped that the prices for housing are still remain lower than in Moscow. To work but people will go quiet town center. Likewise, transport issues will arise with new strength. But ... From traffic jams the city will save a comprehensive list of construction of highways (in the book of those in the field) and the organization of parking garages. starting with new highways situation is not bad. Construct the fourth ring road. Chord line will force him to the highway-doubles and Ring Road. Work has begun on the creation of radial urban roads over the railroad tracks. Help the capital and road works in the field, and especially the construction of the Central Ring Road (Central Ring Road) - more than 400-kilometer ring. Parking, designed to release through the streets of natural parks, are identical under construction. process for the chief: to change the psychology of citizens. - There is ample parking in the center of Moscow for Theatre Square - says Mr Moskvin-Tarkhanov. - Only its empty - people prefer to keep car on top. This mentality can be changed through a combination of sticks (fines) and carrot (parking). paint and a little more freedom - the output from the center of most of the offices. Likewise, business activity will move to the Moscow City. By 2012, it is rather that there is a new center of Moscow. Im going to go so offices, commerce and administration. but rather the old center residential and tourism. Only hope for something which Moscow in one fell swoop become a tourist mecca, it is not necessary. Pampered tourist is not likely very interested in the capital streets and parks, with its palaces and houses of XVIII-XIX centuries. Unique but the facilities - the same Kremlin - still need to submit a causation. feast on the view, which should be removed from there all the federal agencies, except for ceremonial guard units. about the time the Kremlin will now gulbische - Taynitsky garden, towers and walls. likewise the streets for the passage of civil servants do not quite overlap. however, about the Kremlins settling Golden Ring of Moscow with a golden island.

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